Europe’s Capacity to Act: War, Economy, and Fragile Alliances

“Power is not only what you have, but what you can still decide.”

Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine has fundamentally shaken Europe’s security order. Military deterrence, economic dependencies, and political capacity are more intertwined than ever. Sanctions, supply chains, defense, and industrial policy have become central arenas of geopolitical power. Europe’s future is shaped not only along military frontlines but also in economic and institutional contests.

Recent actions by Donald Trump add further uncertainty. His repeated challenges to transatlantic alliances, comments on Greenland, and the downplaying of collective defense obligations expose a long-suppressed risk: the potential erosion of NATO. Europe’s security is thus threatened not only by external aggression but also by the fragility of its own alliances.

How capable is Europe of acting under these conditions? What does strategic autonomy mean when military security, economic resilience, and democratic principles are under pressure? What are the political costs when deterrence, sanctions, and social stability come into conflict?

The panel features Sven Biscop, expert on European security and defense policy, and Dmitry Nekrasov, economist focusing on the Russian economy, sanctions regimes, and geo-economics.

Moderated by Stefan Lenglinger (ORF / Zeit im Bild), the discussion explores whether Europe is merely managing crises—or if it can develop new forms of political agency from them.